Prince Gensuji’s current first project of conquest is the siege of Nathir, a city-state at the confluence of the Maruto and Yellow Rivers which borders Vaneha by land. It has apparently been on the map since 1e though I haven’t yet found much detail on it, but the tidbits there are provide a good bit of material as it is. It has been part of Vaneha proper on and off, most recently enjoying a prolonged spell of independence as Vaneha’s troubles turned its attention inward. The city appreciates the taste of freedom it’s gotten used to in the last century and is broadly loath to give it up, but the majority of its population is ethnically Vanehan and there are also not a few voices who feel it would be easiest to just bend the knee and be part of a whole
From Vaneha’s standpoint, Nathir is seen as a crucial first step and a test of the viability of any expansionist ambitions. If Vaneha can’t conquer one city-state that faces it with water at its back and that has been part of it before, its chances are slim in the Hundred Kingdoms across the river or for that matter anywhere else. But its position is favorable, and Nathir’s wealth as a key regional port would be a major boost to Gensuji’s ambitions. Plus there is symbolic value in decisively controlling all land between the Maruto, the Yellow, and the palisade
There’s a… whatever you would use as the singular for one of the Hundred Kingdoms, Theris, just across the river with its capital of the same name about two thirds of the way between Jibei and Nathir on the opposite shore of the Yellow River. It’s been a lot of things over time, most recently a republic trying to figure out how to do democracy. It enjoys a healthy amount of commerce in its own right, but perhaps what makes it most attractive is its proximity. Controlling both Nathir and Theris would mean significant leverage over all trade going up and down the eastern stretch of the Yellow River, managed by people with long practice in handling trade. If Nathir falls, Theris is next.
But this plan of action isn’t very sexy, and significant chunks of Vaneha’s army are trying to get the Sword Prince to be truer to his rhethoric and take more bold, glorious action. They feel it fails to properly honor their gods and especially the First And Hundredth to think like a merchant with a lot of hired muscle
If the most radical of them had their druthers, he’d pull forces away from the eastern palisade. The various so-called Scantling peoples beyond would love nothing more than that
Not all of them, for they are many different folks and not a unified culture, necessarily mean to raid Vanehan settlements at the first opportunity, though plenty of them certainly would love to. Some include ex-Vanehan refugees who simply want to mind their own business without staring up at soldiers and wondering when they’re going to come over to try and recapture some escaped laborers.
It would be obvious enough to set up some kind of Lunar presence there that I’m almost inclined to think of something else